Ingxenye ye-aluminium ethunyelwa ngaphandle izinzile, igxile eVietnam nase-United States

Ithintwa inqubomgomo yesaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa, ukuthunyelwa kwezwe lami kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium ngokuyinhloko kuyimikhiqizo ye-aluminium, engahlukaniswa ngokuqondile ibe i-aluminium engagayiwe, izinto ze-aluminium (okuhlanganisa amapuleti e-aluminium, imicu ye-aluminium, amaphrofayili e-aluminium, ama-aluminium foil, njll., ikakhulukazi i-semi--semi- imikhiqizo eqediwe), imikhiqizo yensimbi ye-aluminium nokunye. Ngonyaka wezi-2017, izwe lami lathumela ngaphandle amathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.79 emikhiqizo ye-aluminium, okuwukukhula ngo-4.5% unyaka nonyaka. Ngokuvumelana nesilinganiso senani lentengo yokuthekelisa ye-FOB engu-US$2805.8/ton, inhlawulo emaphakathi yentengo ye-LME ingu-US$1,200/ton, futhi isilinganiso seprimiyamu esimaphakathi singu-74%. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, inani lezwe lami lokuthekelisa i-aluminium likhule ngokushesha ngokwanda komthamo wokukhiqiza we-aluminium oyinhloko, futhi umkhuba wokukhula uyafana. Ngo-2017, umthamo wezwe lami wokuthekelisa i-aluminium wawungaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kunowango-2011, wafinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezi-4.79, futhi inani lokuthekelisa lafinyelela ku-13.9 billion. Idola. Kusukela ngo-2012, ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium kwamanye amazwe bekulokhu kubalwa ku-13% -15% wokukhipha okuyinhloko kwe-aluminium, okuzinzile ngokuqhathaniswa.

ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminiyamu kwezwe lami ikakhulukazi kufaka phakathi imichilo ye-aluminium, izinti ze-aluminium kanye namafoyili e-aluminium. Phakathi kwazo, amapuleti e-aluminium namapheshana enza cishe u-40% wesamba esithengisiwe, amaphrofayili enduku ye-aluminium enza ama-30%, ama-akhawunti e-aluminium foil angu-25%, kanti izinhlobo ezisele zenza isamba esingu-5%. Ngokombono womlando, lesi silinganiso sokusabalalisa ngokuyisisekelo siye sahlala sizinzile, kodwa kusukela ngo-2017, ingxenye yamapuleti e-aluminium namapheshana iye yanda cishe ku-50%, futhi isabelo samaphrofayili e-aluminium sincishiswe kakhulu. Isakhiwo sesifunda sigxilile, kanti i-United States neVietnam zibalwa ngengxenye ephezulu kakhulu. Isabelo sezwe lami esithunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-aluminium emakethe yokuhwebelana yamazwe ngamazwe besilokhu sanda unyaka nonyaka, futhi njengamanje sidlula ama-50%. Ngo-2016, u-18% wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yezwe lami yathunyelwa eNyakatho Melika, u-10% wathunyelwa eYurophu, futhi u-37% wathunyelwa eMpumalanga Asia naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia. Ngokwamazwe ahlukene, izindawo ezimbili eziyinhloko zokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium yezwe lami ngo-2016 kwakuyiVietnam kanye ne-United States, eyenze u-14.6% kanye no-13.6% wengqikithi yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ngokulandelana. Amazwe aphezulu ayi-15 athumela ngaphandle abalelwa ku-66% wesamba esithengisiwe. Isakhiwo sesifunda sokuthumela ngaphandle sigxile kakhulu.

Ngokombono wesakhiwo sokuthekelisa semikhiqizo ehlukene, izindawo okuyiwa kuzo eziyinhloko zezinhlobo ezahlukene zokuthekelisa kwe-aluminium zihlukile. Ngokombono we-2016, indawo ebaluleke kakhulu yokuthumela ngaphandle kwamaphrofayili we-aluminium nenduku yiVietnam. Ngo-2016, izwe lami lathumela amathani angu-510,000 we-aluminium rod kanye namaphrofayili wenduku eVietnam, okuphindwe izikhathi ezingu-10 kunomthamo wokuthekelisa we-Philippines esendaweni yesibili; I-United States ne-South Korea iyizwe lami Izindawo eziyinhloko zokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium sheet and strip, ngo-2016, izwe lami lathumela amathani angu-360,000 weshidi ne-strip ye-aluminium e-United States kanye namathani ayi-110,000 eNingizimu Korea; I-United States ne-India yizona zindawo ezihamba phambili zokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium foil yezwe lami. Ngo-2016, izwe lami lathumela amathani angu-168,000 e-aluminium foil e-United States. Ithumele amathani ayi-127,000 eNdiya. Sekukonke, izindawo zokuthekelisa zezinhlobo ezintathu eziyinhloko zezinto ze-aluminium zigxile kakhulu.

Izinqumo Zemboni: Inqubomgomo + Ukusabalala + Umkhiqizo

Ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium kanye nemikhiqizo yayo ezweni lonke kungahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezine zomlando: isigaba sokuqala ngaphambi kwenkinga yezimali emhlabeni wonke ngo-2008 (ngaphambi kuka-2008), okwakubonakala ngokuguquguquka kwentengo kanye nokwenyuka kancane kwevolumu yokuthekelisa; kanye nesigaba sokululama ngokushesha ngemva kwenhlekelele yezimali (2009-2010), isici esiyinhloko ukukhuphuka ngokushesha kwamanani okuhambisana nezintengo zempahla, kanye nokukhula okusheshayo komthamo wokuthekelisa; isigaba sokukhula esiqhubekayo ngemva kwenhlekelele yezimali (2011-2015), isici esiyinhloko ukugcinwa kwamanani azinzile, ivolumu Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo se-aluminium; kanye nesikhathi sakamuva sokwehla kwamanani kanye nokulinganiswa kwevolumu (okwamanje ka-2016), singena ku-2017, inani lentengo yokuthekelisa ye-aluminium kanye nemikhiqizo yayo ezweni lami liye lakhula ngesivinini futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa ube uzinzile uma kuqhathaniswa. Isizathu siwukuthi ngaphezu kokuthambekela komnotho omkhulu kanye nokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa kwempahla ngobuningi, ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium kwezwe lami kuthinteka kakhulu yizinqubomgomo, izindleko, ukwakheka komkhiqizo, kanye nenani elengeziwe. Ukuhlaziya izinguquko kulezi zici ezintathu kuzosiza ukuqonda imakethe yezwe lami yokuthekelisa i-aluminium. Izizathu ezingokomlando nezibikezelo zekusasa.

Ngokuthintwa inqubomgomo yokuthekelisa, i-aluminiyamu yezwe lami kanye nemikhiqizo yayo kuthunyelwa kakhulu emazweni angaphandle kusuka ku-aluminium. Ngo-2005, izwe lami lahoxisa isaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa engamaphesenti angu-8 ku-aluminiyamu engasetshenziswanga futhi lenyusa intela yayo yokuthumela ngaphandle yafinyelela ku-15% ngowezi-2016. Ngo-2008, ukuze kukhuliswe ukwethenjwa kokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium, izwe lami laphinde laqala kabusha isaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa kwe-aluminium futhi lenyusa izinga layo. izinga lentela lifinyelele ku-13%. Kubangele umzuliswano wokuqala wokukhula okusheshayo emakethe yokuthekelisa kwe-aluminium. Kusukela ngo-2008 kuya ku-2009, ingxenye yezwe lami okuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-aluminium yenyuka kakhulu yafinyelela ku-60%.

Njengamanje, cishe yonke imikhiqizo ye-aluminium ezweni lami ngaphandle kwephepha le-aluminium ithokozela isaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa ngo-13% yenani elingeziwe lokuthekelisa, futhi yonke imikhiqizo ye-aluminium foil ijabulela isaphulelo sentela ye-velue added tax esingu-15%, futhi akukho ntela yokuthekelisa ekhokhiswayo. Inqubomgomo yokuthekelisa ekhethwayo ingenye yezinto eziyinhloko ezisekela ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium yezwe lami isikhathi eside. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi imboni yemikhiqizo ye-aluminium okwamanje ingaphansi kwengcindezi yokwehla kwesitokwe, futhi inzuzo yonke yezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ingaphakathi kuka-10%, isaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa ngokuyisisekelo sisesimweni sokungabi nanzuzo ngemva kokuqedwa kwesaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa. Kulindeleke ukuthi umgomo wokuncishiselwa kwentela uqhubeke esikhathini esifushane. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, njengohlobo olugxile kakhulu lwezwe lami lokuphenya nokujeziswa, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium kwamanye amazwe kuthinteka kakhulu izinqubomgomo zaphesheya zokulwa nokulahlwa. Kusukela ngo-2015, i-United States, i-Australia, i-India kanye namanye amazwe aye andise kakhulu imvamisa yokuqaliswa kophenyo lwezohwebo kanye nokujezisa imikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina, futhi izinhlobo zemikhiqizo ehlanganisiwe ziye zaba banzi. Ngokomlando, lapho i-US yenza izinyathelo zokulwa nokulahlwa kwamaphrofayili e-aluminium e-China ngo-2011 futhi yethula uphenyo mayelana nokuhweba nge-aluminium foil nezwe lami ngo-2017, imikhiqizo yaseShayina yaba ngaphezu kuka-65% wesabelo semakethe yendawo, okubalulekile I-aluminium yezwe lami ithumela emazweni angaphandle ngesikhathi esifushane. Bonke babe nomthelela othile. Phakathi kwazo, ukulwa nokulahlwa kwemikhiqizo ngo-2011 kwabangela ngokuqondile ukwehla okungama-38% kumthamo wokuthekelisa wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina neyaseMelika. Umthamo wokuthekelisa wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yezwe lami ulokhu ukhula ngesikhathi esifanayo nokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium. Kusukela ngo-2011, umthamo wanyanga zonke wevolumu yokuthekelisa kwe-aluminiyamu kanye nesilinganiso sokukhiphayo siye saguquguquka phakathi kuka-7% no-10%. Ushintsho luthintwa kakhulu umehluko wamanani angaphakathi nangaphandle, okubuye kuthinte intengo elinganiselwe kanye nokuncintisana kwemakethe kokuthekelisa kwe-aluminium. Izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ezweni lami zinqunywa izindleko ze-aluminium eyinhloko kanye nezindleko zokucubungula i-aluminium. Esikhathini esidlule, izindleko zokucubungula zazingeyesibili futhi azizange zishintshe kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, kwezinye izinkampani zaseShayina ezinekhono lokukhiqiza elikhuphuka nomfula, izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ngokuyinhloko zinqunywa Izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-aluminium eyinhloko zinqunywa. Eminyakeni emibili edlule, inzuzo yezindleko inciphe ngenxa yokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani amalahle asekhaya.

Ukwakheka komkhiqizo kanye nenani elengeziwe kunomthelela omkhulu ekuzinzeni kwentengo yezinto ze-aluminium kanye nenzuzo yamabhizinisi okukhiqiza. Ngokuhamba kokwehla kwenani le-renminbi, intengo ye-aluminium yehle ngezinga elithile. Ngokuya ngezinhlobonhlobo, ububanzi bentengo yezinto ezihlukahlukene ze-aluminium kanye nezitayela zabo zokushintsha intengo zihlukile. Ngokubheka iprimiyamu yentengo ye-RMB ye-aluminium ethunyelwe enanini le-SHFE, kungatholwa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2017, isizathu esiyinhloko sokwehla kwentengo yokuthekelisa ye-aluminium ukwehla ngokushesha kwenani lomkhiqizo ngokwawo. Ukuphakama kwevelu yomkhiqizo, kuyancipha ukuzwela kwentengo kanye nokuguquguquka. Okuncane. Mayelana neshidi nomugqa we-aluminium, kusukela kudatha yezwe lami yokuthekelisa ukuya e-United States, inani elingeziwe lokuthunyelwa okuqondile kweshidi le-aluminium yezwe lami nomugqa liphansi. Ngo-2016, i-United States yangenisa ngaphandle amaphesenti angama-38 engqikithi yayo yepuleti le-aluminium kanye nempahla ephuma ngaphandle evela e-China. Phakathi kwamazwe amahlanu aphezulu ngokwevolumu yokungenisa kulo nyaka, isilinganiso sentengo ye-CIF yepuleti le-aluminium kanye nempahla ethengwayo evela e-China yayiphansi kakhulu ngo-$2,265/ton. Isamba sentengo esimaphakathi se-CIF seshidi nesiqephu se-aluminium esingenisiwe e-United States ngalowo nyaka sasingu-US$2,730/ton, okwakungaphansi ngo-18%. Ngo-2016, i-US yangenisa ucwecwe lwe-aluminium evela e-China yabalelwa ku-66% wesamba sayo esiphelele sephepha le-aluminium elingeniswe ezweni ngalowo nyaka. Phakathi kwamazwe amahlanu aphezulu angenisa impahla, amanani entengo ye-aluminium ye-aluminium yayiphansi, ingxenye eyodwa kuphela yaleyo yaseCanada ne-Austria. Mayelana namaphrofayili e-aluminium, ngo-2016, i-US yangenisa ngokuqondile amaphrofayli e-aluminium evela ezweni lami kuphela yabalelwa ku-3% wesamba esithengisiwe, ngenani elilinganiselwe lama-US $ 4,794 / ton, ngaphezu kwesilinganiso se-US $ 3,944 / ton. Kodwa-ke, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi inani elikhulu lamaphrofayili e-aluminium athunyelwa esuka ezweni lami eVietnam aphinde athunyelwe emakethe yase-US, intengo ejwayelekile yamaphrofayili e-aluminium angeniswe yi-United States evela eVietnam ingama-US$2943/ton, okuyi-US$1,000/ ngamathani aphansi kunenani elimaphakathi. Nakuba kungaqinisekiswa ukuthi i-China Ingxenye yemikhiqizo, kodwa kuqinisekile ukuthi imikhiqizo yaseShayina isesendaweni yamanani aphansi ngemva kokuhwebelana kabusha kwamanye amazwe.

I-Japan futhi ingenye yezindawo eziphambili ze-aluminium yezwe lami nemikhiqizo yayo. Ngokwedatha yokungenisa yaseJapan, ngo-2016, ukungeniswa kwayo kwamaphrofayili e-aluminium kanye nemicu ye-aluminium evela e-China akubalanga ngaphezu kuka-15% wesamba esiphelele esithengwayo ngalowo nyaka. Kulezi zinto ezimbili, imikhiqizo yaseShayina inezinzuzo ezisobala zamanani. Ngaphezu kuka-75% wephepha le-aluminium elingenisiwe lase-Japan livela e-China, futhi inani lentengo elijwayelekile le-aluminium yase-China elivela kwamanye amazwe lingaphansi kwesigamu semikhiqizo yase-Korea engenisiwe, okuyi-1/7 kuphela yemikhiqizo yaseMelika engenisiwe, ehlala endaweni ephansi. imakethe.

Imizamo yokulwa nokulahlwa isibe namandla, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwesikhashana kungase kuthinteke ngezinga elithile

Ngo-March 2018, uMongameli waseMelika u-Trump umemezele ukuqaliswa kwentela entsha yensimbi ne-aluminium, ehlela ukubeka intela engu-25% ensimbi engenisiwe kanye nentela engu-10% ku-aluminium engenayo. Ngokomlando, ngo-April 2011, i-United States yaqala ukuphoqelela imisebenzi emelene nokulahlwa kanye nemisebenzi yokuphikisa kumaphrofayela e-aluminium yezwe lami angenisiwe, futhi umkhiqizo wezwe lami emigoqweni ye-aluminiyamu yaseMelika kanye nezinduku zimile. Lesi sinyathelo siphinde sabangela ukuthi isamba sokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium e-United States e-United States ngo-2011 kwehle ngo-38% unyaka nonyaka uma kuqhathaniswa no-2010. Kwaze kwaba ngu-2013 lapho inani eliphelele lezwe lami lokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium e-United States laqala kabusha ukukhula. Uchungechunge lwezinyathelo zakamuva luhlose ukugcina ingcindezi ephezulu kumaphrofayili e-aluminium yezwe lami. Kusukela ngo-2009, amazwe aseNtshonalanga amelwe yi-United States, i-European Union kanye ne-Australia aqhubekile ethula uphenyo olumelene nokulahlwa kanye nolwe-anti-subsidy emikhiqizweni ye-aluminium ethunyelwa ezweni lami, ikakhulukazi eqondise ama-aluminium extrusions, amasondo e-aluminium neminye imikhiqizo. Kusukela ngo-2015, inani lamazwe abamba iqhaza ophenyweni lokulwa nokulahlwa kanye nokulwa noxhaso lwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium e-China liye landa, futhi izinhlobo zemikhiqizo ehlanganisiwe nazo zandile. Izigameko eziyinhloko zihlanganisa: Ngo-2015, i-India yaqala uphenyo oluphikisana nokulahla ngokumelene ne-aluminium foil yaseShayina, futhi yenza isinqumo sokugcina ngo-March 2017. Kunconywa ukuba kubekwe isinqumo sokugcina emikhiqizweni yaseShayina ehilelekile ecaleni, futhi kunconywa ukukhokhisa intela engu-US$0.69-US$1.63 emikhiqizweni yaseShayina ehilelekile ecaleni. /Kg yemisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla. Ekupheleni kuka-2016, i-India yaba isibili ezweni lami elithumela ngaphandle kwe-aluminium foil, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium foil e-India kwabalelwa ku-12% wesamba sesamba sephepha le-aluminium lezwe lami elithunyelwa ngaphandle ngalowo nyaka. Ukuqaliswa kwemisebenzi emelene nokulahlwa kuzonyusa intengo yokugcina yephepha le-aluminium laseShayina elithunyelwa ngaphandle lisuka e-India ngamaphesenti angama-27 ukuya kuma-62, okulindeleke ukuthi lenze buthaka kakhulu inzuzo yamanje yamanani kanye nesabelo semakethe semikhiqizo yaseShayina.

Inqubomgomo entsha yentela yase-US yensimbi ne-aluminium igcina ingcindezi ephezulu kumaphrofayili e-aluminium yaseChina. Ngo-2015, i-US yanquma u-33.28% wemajini evamile yokulahla kumaphrofayela e-aluminium yezwe lami. Ekupheleni kuka-2016, inqume ukuthi izinkampani eziyisi-9 ezithintekayo kuleli cala zikhokhiswe intela ephezulu yokulwa nokulahlwa kuka-86.01%. Ngo-2017, baphinde bakhipha isinqumo sokuthi bazogcina amanani abo kumaphrofayili e-aluminium yaseChina ngesikhathi sokubuyekezwa kophenyo lomonakalo wezimboni. Izinyathelo zamanje zokulwa nokulahla kanye nezokuphikisa. Ngaso leso sikhathi, kusukela ngo-2017, iNingizimu Korea neBrazil baphinde bajoyina ulayini wophenyo lokulwa nokulahlwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina, futhi izinhlobo zomkhiqizo ziye zamboza amapuleti e-photosensitive e-aluminium ngaphambili, i-aluminium cookware, amasondo e-aluminium alloy neminye imikhiqizo. . Ngo-Agasti 2016, i-Australia yaqala uphenyo oluhlanekezelwa kabili mayelana nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwezinto ze-aluminium zaseMalaysian naseVietnam. Isinqumo sokuqala senziwe ngo-Okthoba 2016, futhi isinqumo sokugcina senziwa ngoJuni 2017. Phakathi kwabo, uphenyo lwe-EastAsia Aluminium Company, i-MienHua Precision Mechanical, njll. Izinqumo, ezibandakanya izinhlobo eziningi zemikhiqizo efana namaphrofayili wenduku ye-aluminium, imichilo ye-aluminium namaphepheli e-aluminium, futhi umthelela ungaba amathani angaba ngu-10,000.

Ngokombono womlando, izinqubomgomo zangaphambili ezimelene nokulahlwa kanye nokuphikisana nazo zibe nomthelela omkhulu kumthamo wezwe lami wokuthekelisa kanye nesabelo samazwe ebesihlosiwe, ngesilinganiso esingaphezu kwama-30%. Esikhathini esifushane, lo mzuliswano wemizamo yokulwa nokulahla uzokwandisa ukutholakala kwezindawo eziningi ezihlukahlukene kanye nohlu olukhulu lwemikhiqizo. Kulindeleke ukuthi kuthinte amathani angaba ngu-360,000 eshidi ne-strip ye-aluminium ngokuqondile, okuhlanganisa amathani angaba ngu-500,000 ohwebo lokuthekelisa kabusha, futhi inani elihilelekile lingama-US$1.5 webhiliyoni. Kuzoba nomthelela othile omubi ekuthunyelweni kwe-aluminium kusuka ku-2018 kuya ku-2019. Nokho, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ukushoda kwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele kwamanje kunzima ukukuqeda esikhathini esifushane, kanye neshidi le-aluminium eliphansi eliqondile kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-strip e-United States ikakhulukazi amashidi ezimoto. , okufaka ingxenye enkulu uma kuqhathaniswa yenani eliphelele lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe (ngaphezu kwama-40%), umthelela wevolumu yokuthekelisa kanye nevelu yokuthekelisa kulindeleke ukuthi ibe nomkhawulo. .

Ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zamandla + ukuncipha kwezikhala zamanani, izinzuzo ze-aluminium ezisezingeni eliphansi ziyehla

Izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ezweni lami zinqunywa izindleko ze-aluminium eyinhloko kanye nezindleko zokucubungula i-aluminium. Izindleko zokucubungula zingezesibili futhi zinoshintsho oluncane. Ngakho-ke, kwezinye izinkampani zaseShayina ezinekhono lokukhiqiza elikhuphuka nomfula, izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ikakhulukazi Inqunywa izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-aluminium eyinhloko. Kodwa-ke, izindleko eziyinhloko zezwe lami zokukhiqiza i-aluminium zinesimo esingathandeki, futhi kunzima ukusekela amanani aphansi isikhathi eside. Ngokukhethekile, izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-aluminium eyinhloko ezweni lami zinezici ezilandelayo. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Bloomberg, ngo-2017, izindleko zokusebenzisa ugesi wegridi ezinkampanini ze-aluminium zazilinganiselwa ku-2700 yuan/ton (noma US$400/ton) ngaphezu kwalokho kagesi ozihlinzeka wona. Izindleko zikagesi zezinkampani ze-aluminium zaseShayina ezisebenzisa ugesi ozihlinzeka ngokwazo zenza u-31% kuphela wezindleko zazo zemali, kanti lezo ezisebenzisa ugesi wegridi zenza u-5%. Ngokuhambisanayo, izinkampani ze-aluminium ezisebenzisa ugesi ozihlinzeka ngokwazo zinesilinganiso senzuzo eyisamba esingu-3,115 yuan/ton ukukhiqiza i-aluminium eyinhloko ngo-2017, kuyilapho izinkampani ezisebenzisa ugesi wegridi cishe azinayo imingcele yenzuzo. Uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe nezifunda emhlabeni, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ngethani ngalinye le-electrolytic aluminium ekhiqizwa amabhizinisi e-aluminium yaseShayina kungamahora angama-kilowatt angu-13,600 kuphela, okuyizinga elingcono kakhulu emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yomthamo omusha wokukhiqiza wasekhaya. Izindleko zikagesi zibalelwa ku-35% -40% wezindleko zokukhiqiza i-electrolytic aluminium. Njengamanje, u-30% we-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yaseChina ikhiqizwa ngamandla egridi, futhi izinkampani ze-aluminium zaseChina ezisebenzisa amandla egridi zinezindleko zikagesi eziphakeme kakhulu emhlabeni. Izinkampani ze-aluminium ezisebenzisa ugesi ozihlinzeka ngokwazo zinenzuzo encane kune-Europe ne-United States ngokwesilinganiso, kodwa zifana nalezo zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Isilinganiso sisenegebe elikhulu. Ngokwezilinganiso zikaRusal, izindleko zikagesi wegridi zezinkampani ze-aluminium zaseShayina ukukhiqiza ithani elingu-1 le-electrolytic aluminium cishe i-US$900, ibalwa ku-50% yenani lamanje le-LME, kuyilapho izindleko emazweni aseCanada naseGulf zingase zibe ngaphansi kwe-US. $350. Ukwengeza, inzuzo yentengo yangaphambilini yezinkampani ze-aluminium zaseShayina zikagesi wokuzihlinzeka zivela kumalahle ashibhile. Ngo-2016, eqhutshwa ukuncishiswa kwamandla amalahle, amanani amalahle akhuphuka kakhulu, okwakhuphula kakhulu izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa zikagesi ozisekelayo. Ukwenyuka kwentengo yamalahle kulindeleke ukuthi kunyuse kakhulu izindleko zikagesi. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi ekabili yokunciphisa umthamo wokukhiqiza amalahle kanye nokukhuthaza ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zamandla kuzoba umkhuba. Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yezwe lami kunemithombo emibili kuphela kagesi: amandla aphehlwa ngamanzi namandla ashisayo. Isilinganiso senani le-on-grid lamandla kagesi ngu-0.2 yuan/kWh. Uma kuqhathaniswa nenani lamanje lamandla ashisayo elizihlinzekayo elingu-0.3 yuan/kWh, linezinzuzo ezisobala, kodwa ingxenye iphansi kakhulu. Kungu-10%.

Ngaphezu kwama-90% e-alumina esetshenziswa ezweni lami iyazikhiqizela yona, kanti ingaphansi kuka-10% ingenisiwe. Emakethe yasekhaya, kunomehluko omncane phakathi kwamanani entengo ye-alumina yendawo kanye ne-alumina engenisiwe. Ngokwesilinganiso, intengo ye-alumina yezinga lokuqala engenisiwe e-Qingdao Port ingama-yuan ayi-100 kuphela amayuan angama-200/ton ngaphezu kwe-alumina yasekhaya yesigaba sokuqala. Uma ngiqhathanisa intengo ye-alumina yasekhaya yezwe lami kusukela ngo-2010 kuya ku-2015 nenani lokuthengisa i-alumina yezinkampani ezinkulu ze-aluminium emhlabeni, kungatholakala ukuthi intengo yasekhaya ye-alumina iphakeme kunesilinganiso senani le-alumina le-Alcoa ne-Rusal ngama-US$60-US$100/ ithani. Mayelana ne-bauxite, okwamanje ama-45% e-bauxite yezwe lami atholakala ngokuthengwa kwamanye amazwe, kodwa isilinganiso senani lokungenisa ezweni lingama-US$15/thani kuphela ngaphezu kwenani elijwayelekile emakethe yasekhaya. Ilinganiselwa ngokususelwa ekukhiqizweni kwethani elingu-1 le-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic kuwo wonke amathani angu-5 e-bauxite, ithani ngalinye. Izindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic zikhuphuke ngo-US$75/ton. Sekukonke, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium yaseShayina kunomnotho wesilinganiso futhi kunezinzuzo ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla, kodwa ukukhuphuka kwamanani amandla kanye nezingcindezi zemvelo kuzokwandisa izindleko zokukhiqiza. Izinkampani ze-aluminium eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseCanada zingakwazi ukugcina ukuqina kwazo kwezindleko futhi zizuze ekuba buthaka kwenzuzo yamanani emikhiqizo yaseShayina ngenxa yezinzuzo zazo zesakhiwo sezindleko.

Ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko zamandla, inzuzo eyinhloko yezindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium yase-China ibe buthaka. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium eyinhloko yezwe lami, ukuthambekela koshintsho emananini e-aluminium yasekhaya neyangaphandle iye yafana kakhulu. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, umehluko wentengo phakathi kwe-SHFE ne-LME kunzima ukuwugcina usezingeni eliphezulu, futhi iwindi le-arbitrage enkulu yokuthekelisa lilinganiselwe. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi kokubili ukwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko zamandla kuzoholela ekwehleni kwezinzuzo zokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yasekhaya, ngenani lokushintshisana lika-6.5 kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko zamandla ngo-10%, imikhiqizo enemali yokucubungula. engaphezu kuka-US$755/ton inenzuzo enokwethenjelwa kanye nezinzuzo zokuthekelisa , Imikhiqizo yokuthekelisa esezingeni eliphezulu iyazuza kuqala.

Xhumanisa nale ndatshana: Ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo kuthinta ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium yesikhashana

Phinda Uphrinte Isitatimende: Uma ingekho imiyalelo ekhethekile, zonke izindatshana ezikule sayithi zingezangempela. Sicela ukhombise umthombo wokuphrinta kabusha:https://www.cncmachiningptj.com

I-PTJ® ingumkhiqizi owenziwe ngezifiso ohlinzeka ngohlu olugcwele lwemigoqo yethusi, izingxenye zethusi futhi izingxenye zethusi. Izinqubo zokukhiqiza ezijwayelekile zifaka ukuvala, ukufaka imbossing, ukwenza i-coppersmithing, wire edm amasevisi, ukuhuba, ukubumba nokugoba, ukucasula, kushisa UKWAKHA nokucindezela, ukubhoboza nokubhoboza, ukugingqa intambo nokuguqa, ukugunda, imishini eminingi yokuphotha, i-extrusion kanye ukubumba insimbi futhi uyanyathela. Izicelo zifaka amabha amabhasi, amakhondakta kagesi, izintambo ezinamagagasi, amagagasi, izingxenye ze-transistor, amashubhu e-microwave, amashubhu esikhunta angenalutho, kanye i-powder metallurgy amathangi e-extrusion.

Sitshele okuncane mayelana nesabelomali sephrojekthi yakho kanye nesikhathi sokulethwa okulindelekile. Sizokwenza amasu nawe ukuze sikunikeze izinsiza ezingabizi kakhulu ukukusiza ufinyelele umgomo wakho, wamukelekile ukuthi uxhumane nathi ngqo ( sales@pintejin.com ).