Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2016, ngenxa yemizamo eqinile yokuvimbela "insimbi yaphansi", izikhala zokuhlinzekwa kwensimbi zidalwe, futhi izimakethe zemakethe ziye zahlala ziphansi, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi amanani ensimbi ehle ngokuphumelelayo esikhathini esifushane. Ngakho-ke, ukuvinjelwa "kwensimbi yaphansi" kubambezele umkhuba wokwehla wamaphakathi nesikhathi eside wezintengo zensimbi. Ngokuhambisana nokuphazamiseka kokukhiqiza okulinganiselwe phakathi nenkathi yokushisisa, imakethe ihlala phezulu ku-arc isikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uhlangothi lwesidingo alukapholi ngokuphawulekayo futhi selusekele nezintengo zensimbi. Njengamanje, inzuzo yezigayo zensimbi isezingeni eliphezulu, futhi imakethe yesaba ukuphakama. Kuyakhathaza ukwethulwa komthamo omusha weziko likagesi kanye nokuqiniswa okwengeziwe kwenqubomgomo yezimali. Ngakho-ke, imakethe yensimbi engxenyeni yesibili ka-2017 akuyona neze "ihhashi-horse".

Njengamanje, umthelela wokuvinjelwa kwe-"land strip steel" emakethe awuzange uphele ngokuphelele, oye wagcina i-stock market yensimbi emadolobheni angu-35 ezingeni eliphansi. Kusukela mhla zingama-30 kuNhlangulana wezi-2017, imakethe yemikhiqizo yensimbi emihlanu emikhulu yayingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-9.512 kuphela, lapho ukuthengiswa kwemakethe yomkhiqizo omude kwakungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.022, okwakucishe kufane nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2016; I-inventory yemakethe yamapuleti yayiphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, yafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.490, kodwa muva nje Kube nomkhuba wokwehla ngokushesha. Kunezingxabano eziningi emakethe mayelana nokukhiqizwa kwangempela kwe "ground strip steel". Ngokwezindlela zokubala ezahlukene, isilinganiso sonyaka sokukhishwa kwe "ground strip steel" sisukela kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-39 kuya kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-100.

Uma kulinganiswa ngombono wokukhishwa kwensimbi engahluziwe yezigayo zensimbi ezivamile ezigcwalisa igebe "lensimbi yomhlabathi", ukukhishwa kwangempela "kwensimbi yomhlabathi" okunqunywa indlela yomehluko wephuzu eliphezulu eliphansi kungase kusondele kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-100 ngonyaka. , uma kucatshangelwa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kwamanje kwenqubo ende Izinga alisaphansi. Izinga lokusebenzisa umthamo we-blast furnace wezigayo zensimbi eziyi-163 ezihlolwe yi-Mysteel lisondele ku-90% ngemuva kokuqeda amandla aphelelwe yisikhathi. Kungase kuthathe izinyanga ezingu-9.3 ukugcwalisa igebe lokunikezela ngokwandisa umthamo wokukhiqiza we-blast furnace-converter. Ukugcwalisa igebe lokunikezela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kuphazamiseka ngenxa yezizathu ezihlukahlukene, kuzothatha isikhathi eside ukugcwalisa igebe. Umphumela wangempela "wensimbi yomugqa womhlabathi" onqunywa indlela yokusetshenziswa kwamandla ensimbi yesikhathi esifushane cishe uphakathi kwamathani ayizigidi ezingama-39 kuya kwezingu-70 ngonyaka, futhi kusathatha izinyanga ezi-3.7 kuye kweziyi-6.6 ukugcwalisa lesi sikhala.

Njengamanje, ngaphezu kwamandla amasha wokukhiqiza we-blast furnace-converter inqubo ye-Rizhao Steel, amandla enqubo entsha yokukhula ngo-2017 anqunyelwe. Uma ukwethulwa komthamo omusha wesithando somlilo kubambezeleka, ukugcwalisa igebe lokuhlinzeka kuzoncika kakhulu kumthamo wokukhiqiza ohambisana nesikhathi eside okhona. Kunoma yikuphi, ukugcwalisa igebe kudinga izigayo zensimbi ukuze zisebenze ngokugcwele isikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukugcwalisa igebe lokunikezwa kwempahla ngesizini engasebenzi kuzobhebhethekisa ukushoda kwezinsiza kule sizini ephezulu. Ngokuqondene nesilinganiso somthamo omusha wokukhiqiza isithando somlilo kagesi, kuyinkinga futhi nokungaqiniseki okukhulu. Imakethe ilindeleke ukuthi ibe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-20 ngonyaka. Uma lawa makhono engeziwe ezinhlwini zokugcwalisa igebe lokuhlinzeka kusukela engxenyeni yesine ka-2017, isikhathi sokugcwalisa igebe singafinyezwa cishe ngezinyanga ezingu-0.5-1.3 ngokusekelwe ekubalweni kwesilinganiso sokukhiqiza "sensimbi ye-ground strip". Kafushane, uma isidingo sizinzile, kungathatha cishe izinyanga eziyi-6 ukugcwalisa igebe.

Esikhathini esimaphakathi neside, inkathi ye-post-"floor steel" iyeza, futhi inkathi yangemva "yensimbi yaphansi" ingahlukaniswa izigaba ezimbili. Isigaba sokuqala ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwamandla okuguqula isithando somlilo ukugcwalisa igebe elibangelwa ukuvinjelwa "kwensimbi yomhlabathi", futhi isigaba sesibili ukugcwalisa igebe ngomthamo wokuguqula isithando somlilo kanye nomthamo wesithando somlilo kagesi. Muva nje, ukunaka komphakathi embonini yensimbi kushintshile kusukela kugebe lokuhlinzeka elibangelwa ukucindezelwa "kwensimbi yaphansi" kuya kumthamo omusha wesithando somlilo we-arc kanye nokuhlinzeka nokufunwa kwesimo sama-graphite electrode adliwe ohlelweni lokukhiqiza isithando somlilo se-arc kagesi. Uma nje kusekhona amabhodlela ohlobo olulodwa noma olunye ohlelweni lokukhulula umthamo wesithando somlilo we-arc kagesi, kungenzeka ukuthi isikhathi lapho igebe lokuhlinzekwa ligcwaliswa lizobambezeleka, futhi isikhathi sokuba izigayo zensimbi zigcine inzuzo yazo endaweni. isigaba esiphumelelayo sizokwandiswa isikhathi eside.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inqubomgomo yomkhawulo wokukhiqiza wenkathi yokushisisa ye-"Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Area 2017 Air Pollution and Control Work Plan" iphinde yahlaba umkhosi wokunikezwa okuqinile. Kusukela maphakathi no-November 2017 kuya maphakathi no-February 2018, isiteshi se-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sokudlulisa ukungcoliswa komoya kwesiteshi esingu-2+26 sokungcoliseka okuphezulu kwasemadolobheni kanye nezimboni ezisebenzisa amandla aphezulu sehle safinyelela ku-50%, okusho ukuthi izinga elikhulu. Vala shaqa. Ukuvalwa kwezithando zomlilo kuzodala insimbi encibilikisiwe namabhilidi. inkinga yezinsiza. Uma kubhekwa amazinga aphansi e-inventory amanje, ukuncishiswa kokunikezela kungabangela kalula ukuqina kwemakethe futhi. Njengamanje, izigayo zensimbi zenze izinguquko zokukhiqiza ngokusekelwe enzuzweni yezinhlobonhlobo, futhi esikhathini esizayo zizophinde zitshekise imithombo yamanzi yensimbi ezinhlobonhlobo ngenzuzo enhle. Imigqa yokukhiqiza yezinye izinhlobo ingase imise ngokuphelele ukukhiqiza, kanti ezinye izinhlobo ezinenzuzo enhle zingase zikhiqize ngokugcwele.

Ngokusho kokubala okusekelwe emgqeni wokukhiqiza ofinyelela izinga elingaba ngu-80%, ukukhiqizwa okulinganiselwe ngesikhathi sokushisa kubangele ukwehla kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-30-40 zokunikezwa kwensimbi, okuzothinta ukukhishwa konyaka cishe ngo-3%. Izinhlobo ezithinteke kakhulu zokukhiqiza okuvinjelwe imichilo yensimbi egoqelwe ngokushisayo, amapayipi ensimbi ashiselwe, amaphrofayili, amapheshana ensimbi agoqeke abandayo, nemicu yensimbi enogqinsi olumaphakathi nobubanzi. Ngokuphambene, ukunikezwa kwe-rebar akukhawulelwe njengemicu yensimbi, amapayipi ashiselwe namaphrofayili, futhi izinsimbi zensimbi azithinteki kakhulu kunezintambo zocingo nezinsimbi. Uma igebe lokuhlinzeka elibangelwa ukuvinjelwa "kwensimbi yaphansi" alikwazi ukugcwaliswa ngekota yesine ka-2017, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi izigayo zensimbi zizoqhubeka nokutshekisa imithombo yamanzi yensimbi emikhiqizweni ende. Imikhawulo yokukhiqiza evumelana nemvelo izosiza imakethe yamapuleti ehlise ingcindezi yokugcwala ngokweqile.

Ukwengeza, isigaba sokuqaliswa kwenqubomgomo evimbela ukukhiqizwa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo yenkathi yokushisisa yasebusika yango-2017 iqondana nokuvulwa kweNgqungquthela Kazwelonke ye-19 yeQembu LamaKhomanisi laseShayina. Ngokomkhuba wangaphambilini, uchungechunge lwemihlangano ebalulekile luzohlala cishe amasonto amabili, futhi ukuqina kokugadwa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nemikhawulo yokukhiqiza ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kungenzeka kukhule. Ngaphambi kwalokhu, iMidlalo Kazwelonke ye-13 izobanjelwa e-Tianjin kusukela ngo-Agasti 27 kuya ku-September 8, 2017. Ngisho noma izinga lomoya esifundeni saseBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei lihle kusukela ngo-August kuya ku-September, akunakuphikwa ukuthi kuzokwengezwa imidlalo yangaphambi kweNational. Ukuba nokwenzeka kwemizamo emikhulu yokuqondisa ukuvikelwa kwemvelo. Ukukhuluma ngomgomo, kusukela maphakathi no-Agasti 2017, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi eNyakatho China kungase kuqhubeke nokuphazanyiswa yizici ezihlukahlukene, futhi isikhathi sokugcwalisa igebe lokuhlinzeka sizoqhubeka nokuhlehliswa.

Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi umkhawulo wokuvikelwa kwemvelo ukukhiqizwa ngesikhathi sokushisa kuhloswe kumthamo wesithando somlilo, ukukhiqizwa kwesithando somlilo kagesi akuthinteki ngesikhathi sokushisa. Umthamo omusha weziko likagesi uzovala ingxenye yegebe elibangelwa umthamo olinganiselwe wokuguqula isithando somlilo, futhi umthamo omusha wesithando somlilo kagesi uhloselwe kakhulu emakethe yemikhiqizo ende. Izinga lapho ukunikezwa kwemikhiqizo emide okuthintekayo kuzoncishiswa kancane. Ngenxa yokugcwala ngokweqile kwezinsimbi ezilahliwe, amanani entengo angase angazweli kakhulu ekukhishweni komthamo omusha wesithando somlilo sikagesi. Kudingeka ukugxila ezimeni zokusebenza zamabhizinisi wezinqubo ezimfushane ukuze kunqunywe izinga lokukhululwa kokunikezwa okungenzeka.

Inqubomgomo yezimali iqiniswa ngokusesilinganisweni, umthelela wokwehla kwesidingo uyancipha, futhi umphumela wokuncishiswa kokunikezela uyabonakala
Umzuliswano wamanje wokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali waqala ngoJulayi 2016, kodwa mayelana nokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo kusukela ngoMeyi 2017, ukalwa umugqa wethrenda wezinga lokukhula lonyaka ka-M1, ngokuvamile uchema ekuqinisweni okumaphakathi. . Okunye ukuqina okubili kwenqubomgomo yezimali kusukela kwaba nenkinga yezimali emhlabeni wonke ngo-2009 kube mnene kakhulu kunalokhu, futhi kunomkhawulo olinganiselwe emisebenzini yezomnotho. Lesi futhi isizathu sokuthi kungani ama-PMIs okukhiqiza asekhaya kanye nokungakhiqizi awazange awe kodwa akhuphuka ngoJuni 2017. Imijikelezo emibili yokuqinisa inqubomgomo yezimali ngo-2010 kanye no-2013 yathatha izinyanga ezingu-28 nezinyanga ezingu-21 ngokulandelanayo. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi ukukhula komnotho wasekhaya kwamanje akukude nomgomo wenqubomgomo futhi igumbi lokuqondisa lilinganiselwe, isikhathi salo mzuliswano wokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo singase futhi Sithathe cishe izinyanga ezingu-20, kodwa inqubo yokuqinisa akuyona ukunyakaza okufanayo. , futhi kuye kwaba nezigaba zokusheshisa nokuncipha emlandweni.

Ukuqiniswa okuncane kwenqubomgomo yezimali yasekhaya kungazwakala ezinguqukweni ezingeni le-meso. Okusobala kakhulu ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo kusesezingeni eliphezulu, futhi isikali semali mboleko yezindlu zokuhlala ayizange inciphe kakhulu, kodwa yehla kancane. Ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zokulawulwa kwezakhiwo zasemadolobheni, ukuthengiswa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo emadolobheni okuqala kanye nesigaba sesibili kuye kwancipha kakhulu, kodwa amadolobha esigaba sesithathu nesine ayaqhubeka nokukhuthaza inqubo yokuchithwa kwezindlu. Ukuthengiswa kwezakhiwo kuzwelonke kusasebenza ngezinga eliphezulu. Akukho ukwehla okuphawulekayo kwamanani ezindlu emadolobheni angama-70 amakhulu namaphakathi e-China. Indawo esanda kuqaliswa yezindlu ezithengiswayo isakhula ngokusesilinganisweni, okusafaneleka ekugcineni amanani entengo ensimbi aphezulu. Isikhathi lapho imakethe yezindlu nezindlu yafinyelela phezulu futhi yawa, yabambezeleka kakhulu ukwehla komnotho wasekhaya. Umthelela omubi wamanje wesidingo emananini ensimbi awukabonakali. Kuphela lapho ukuthengiswa kwezindlu kazwelonke kuncipha futhi amanani ezindlu ashintsha ukusuka ekukhuphukeni kuye ekuweni, amanani ensimbi Ukucindezela kokuwa kuzokhula kakhulu.

Ukuqhathaniswa kwezinga lokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali yasekhaya kusukela ngo-2008
Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo kulindeleke ukuthi sibe nokuphazamiseka okukhulu emakethe. Ngaphansi kokugqugquzelwa kohlelo lweminyaka eyinkulungwane lwe-Xiongan New Area, okulindelwe yimakethe “kokwenza ngokushesha nokwenza umehluko” kungase kuqhubeke nokubola. Noma ngabe lokho okulindelekile kungamanga ngemuva kwalokho, kungase futhi kwakhe isitayela esizigcwalisayo emakethe. Gcwalisa ngokugcwele imakethe ekhulayo yokusungula. Kodwa-ke, umjikelezo wezepolitiki kanye nomjikelezo wezomnotho awuhambisani kakhulu. Imakethe ekhulayo yonyaka ka-2012-2013 yaqedwa phakathi nomjikelezo wokunciphisa imali, kanti isizinda semakethe yonyaka omusha ka-2017-2018 kwakuwumjikelezo wokuqinisa imali. Kwikota yesine, umphumela walo mjikelezo wokuqiniswa kwezimali uzovela kancane kancane. Yize imakethe izokwenza ukuqagela kweminyaka yonke, kusobala ukuthi isazovinjwa isimo sokuqina kwezimali.

Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi konyaka (≥6 million amathani) isigayo sensimbi siqhumisa izinga lokusebenza kanye nenzuzo
Izici zokushaqeka kweleveli emaphakathi kanye neleveli enkulu ebezikhona kwikota yesine akufanele zithathwe kancane. Ngokuya nge-mesoscale, izigayo zensimbi ezinosayizi abahlukene zinezimpendulo ezihlukene kumasiginali wamanani, angasetshenziswa njengesisekelo esibalulekile sokwahlulela ukuguqulwa kwamanani ensimbi. Uma izigayo ezinkulu zensimbi sezingena ezinhlwini zokuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqiza nokwandisa, imakethe ingase ingabi kude nendawo yokushintsha.

Isisekelo senkontileka esiyinhloko se-rebar kanye nokuguquguquka kwempahla yemakethe ye-rebar
Izinga lokukhula komnotho wasekhaya lehlile, futhi ingcindezi ephansi izocindezela isidingo sensimbi. Njengoba kunikezwe ukuthi kunezici eziningi zokuphazamiseka emakethe yensimbi ngo-2017, intengo ephansi yensimbi ngeke ihambe kahle. Umjikelezo wepolitiki ungase ukhuthaze okulindelwe yimakethe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izohlangabezana nemikhawulo yokukhiqiza phakathi nenkathi yokushisa. Izithiyo.
Silindele ukuthi izinkontileka ze-RB1710 ne-RB1801 zizosebenza ku-RMB 2800-3600/ton kanye ne-RMB 2700-3500/ton ngokulandelanayo. Ngokuphathelene ne-intertemporal arbitrage, ngaphambi kwenkathi yesidingo esiphezulu entwasahlobo nasekwindla, isu lesikhathi eside le-positive arbitrage yesikhathi eside yisu eliyinhloko. Kusukela ngo-2011, imakethe yokulungisa isisekelo se-rebar ngokuvamile ibikhona ekupheleni nasekuqaleni konyaka. Ikakhulukazi endaweni lapho ukunikezwa nesidingo kulindeleke ukuthi kuphinde kuzwakale onyakeni omusha, maningi amathuba okuthi kugcwalise igebe lokuhlinzeka futhi kulungiswe imakethe yesisekelo.

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